Drama Dots: What is Survivorship Bias?


DRAMA dots . . .

Creating engaging, effective communications!

During WWII, the U.S. wanted to make its bomber planes more resilient. They mapped out all of the spots where their planes had been shot but were still able to make it back. The thought was to reinforce those areas and make them stronger.

However, statistician Abraham Wald had a different recommendation. While those planes did receive heavy firepower at those locations, they could still make it back. But, what about the planes that DIDN’T make it back? Where were they hit? The planes that sustained enemy fire in other locations were the ones that went down.

Before Wald suggested his solution, researchers were being swayed by survivorship bias.

This bias occurs when we focus on the experience of survivors (and their success), thus neglecting the crucial lessons to be had from those who did not survive. And, failing to look at the group as a whole instead of just the successful individual.

We’ve all known of someone who drank or smoked in excess – and lived a long life. If we were to apply survivorship bias, we might think you could still live a long life even if you drink in excess or smoke too much. But, what about all the people who died early because of complications arising from smoking too many cigarettes or drinking too much alcohol? We can gain much more helpful data from looking at the entire group, rather than just the successful individuals.

We read countless books and articles about the common traits of successful people. What about all of the unsuccessful people who possessed those same traits?

Survivorship bias frequently rears its ugly head in business and personal challenges. We focus on limited data, which can be harmful in the long run.

This is a great reminder to be the person who asks the hard questions in a meeting or a personal discussion. We can still communicate with clarity and kindness, but there is value in asking questions to broaden our scope and perspective.

We often forget that what is unseen sometimes has as much value as what is seen!


What is the meaning of Adytum?

What’s the meaning of the word adytum?

A. Things that have no end

B. An appendix to a document

C. Innermost room in old temples

D. Recently formed cell

If you guessed C, you are correct. According to Merriam-Webster, adytum is the innermost sanctuary in an ancient temple. It was only open to priests.

This word came to my attention because it was one of the words 2025 Scripps National Spelling Bee Winner Faizan Zaki spelled correctly to win the $50,000 prize. (The final word? Éclaircissement.)

Have you ever used the word adytum?


A MUCH-NEEDED LAUGH!


INSPIRATION

A young girl was with her mom in their local SupeRx drugstore just outside of Nashville. Their neighborhood was full of country music stars, so it wasn’t surprising to see them out and about in her suburb.

As the little girl ventured to the makeup aisle, she made eye contact with “what appeared to be a real-life princess.” The beautiful woman was decked out in denim and rhinestones from head to toe. The beautiful woman asked if the little girl could help her pick out a shade of lipstick.

The little girl was so excited! This beautiful woman wanted her opinion! And, the woman took the little girl’s advice!

Dolly Parton bought two tubes of lipstick – one for herself and one for the little girl helping her. (After asking the mom if it was ok to purchase it for the little girl!)

This story appeared courtesy of Elle H. in the book “Upworthy Good People,” and I think it’s a lovely anecdote about Dolly Parton.

💄💄💄

Dolly Parton was the fourth of 12 children and grew up in a rural, one-room cabin in Tennessee. She grew up in poverty, yet became one of the most successful country artists of all time. While she is well known for her music and songwriting, her philanthropic activities are even more impressive.

In 1988, she started the Dollywood Foundation. It was launched in her home county of Sevier, Tennessee; the goal was to help lessen high school dropout rates. She started an initiative called the “Buddy Program.” She gave $500 to every seventh and eighth grader who finished high school. It was a HUGE success – the dropout rate declined from 35% to 6%. And, in 1989, she started offering a $500 scholarship to anyone in Sevier County who wanted to attend Hiwassee College.

In 1995, she started the Imagination Library for the children in her county. Today, the program serves five countries (the US, the UK, the Republic of Ireland, Canada, and Australia) and gifts millions of free books each month to children five years old and younger. To date, 3,197,250 kids are registered, and a whopping 277,411,464 books have been donated!

“This actually started because my father could not read and write and I saw how crippling that could be,” Dolly said. “My dad was a very smart man. And I often wondered what he could have done had he been able to read and write. So that is the inspiration.”

In 2000, she donated $1 million to coronavirus research at Vanderbilt University; it helped fund Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine.

Dolly also created numerous relief funds for people impacted by wildfires and other natural disasters. She has made million-dollar donations to hospitals and created even more scholarships. Bottom line: our world is a better place because of Dolly Parton.

I just give from my heart,” Dolly Parton said. “I never know what I’m going to do or why I’m gonna do it. I just see a need and if I can fill it, then I will.” (Quote from her Carnegie Medal of Philanthropy speech.)

May we all find inspiration in Dolly’s story and do what we can to help others.

I LOVE creating this newsletter. If you know someone who would enjoy it, please forward it to them with an invitation to subscribe here. See you in two weeks!

Karen Nicholas

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